THE $1 TRILLION CHIP STOCK NOBODY SAW COMING
AMD crossed a $1 trillion market cap this week after a single session where the stock jumped 10 percent, and Intel wasn't far behind with a 12 percent surge of its own. That kind of move tends to hit two types of investors hard: the ones who missed it entirely, and the ones who sold months ago and are now watching the chart with their stomach in their throat.
The move wasn't random. A closely watched index of semiconductor names, including Micron, climbed for a sixth straight session, and the rally was broad enough to drag the Nasdaq Composite to back to back record closes for the first time since June. Meta's new AI agent, Muse, also got credit for lifting sentiment across the group, with Meta shares up 13 percent over two sessions.
The uncomfortable question for anyone sitting on the sidelines is whether this is a new leg up or a blow off top before a pullback. Neither answer is obvious yet, which is exactly why chasing a stock the day after a 10 percent jump is usually the riskiest time to buy it, not the safest.
THE FED HIKED FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THREE YEARS, AND WALL STREET PARTIED ANYWAY
On September 16th, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 12 to 0 to raise the federal funds rate a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, the first hike since July 2023. New projections showed 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more hike before the year ends, and the median forecast for year end climbed to 4.1 percent. Chair Kevin Warsh, who has stopped submitting his own rate projection since June, called the economy strong enough to handle it.
Every textbook says a hike should hurt stocks. For about a day, it did. Then the market flipped hard, with the Nasdaq 100 running from a low near $700 on the day of the hike to above $745 within a week, and the Nasdaq Composite closing at a record twice in a row by that Tuesday.
The hike had been priced in for weeks, so once the uncertainty cleared, traders treated the clarity itself as the good news. If a headline saying "Fed hikes rates" is what tells you to get defensive, you're usually a week behind the market, not ahead of it.
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GOLD QUIETLY CRASHED 22 PERCENT, AND NOBODY TOLD YOU
Gold hit an all time high near $5,600 an ounce in January. By mid September it had fallen 22 percent from that peak, settling around $4,350, one of the largest drawdowns for the metal in over a decade. If you bought near the top, that's the kind of number that keeps you up at night.
Here's the part that should change how you read it. Central banks bought a record 289 tonnes of gold in the second quarter alone, buying aggressively into the decline rather than backing away from it. That's not the behavior of investors who think the trade is over. Kevin Warsh's hawkish tone at Jackson Hole and renewed friction between the US and Iran pushed rates and the dollar higher, both of which weigh on gold in the short term, but the long term buyers didn't blink.
When the people with the deepest pockets and the longest time horizon are buying a 22 percent dip instead of selling it, that's usually worth paying attention to, even if the headlines are all about the losses.
YOUR STI GAINS JUST GOT WIPED OUT BY SOMEONE ELSE'S FEAR
The Straits Times Index hit a record high above 5,780 earlier this month, lifted by a strong private sector growth reading and gains across DBS, Hong Kong Land, and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding. It didn't last. The index gave back those gains and fell to its lowest level since early August, tracking a semiconductor driven selloff on Wall Street that had nothing to do with anything happening in Singapore.
This is the part that frustrates a lot of local investors and rarely gets explained clearly. Singapore's economy didn't change. Local earnings didn't change. What moved the STI was sentiment thousands of miles away in US tech stocks, and Singapore names got pulled along for the ride simply because global money moves as a herd.
If you're holding SGX names for the long term, a pullback driven entirely by US chip stock nerves is a very different situation than one driven by a problem here at home. Knowing the difference is what separates a portfolio decision from a panic reaction.
SINGAPORE REITS ARE AT A CROSSROADS NOBODY'S TALKING ABOUT
The three month SORA, the benchmark rate that drives S-REIT borrowing costs, has settled around 1.1 percent, roughly 100 basis points below where it sat a year ago. Lower funding costs are exactly what income focused REIT investors want to see, and analysts are pointing to around 3 percent year on year distribution growth as a result.
There's a catch that's easy to miss if you're only watching the local headlines. The Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Reserve Bank of Australia have all been raising their own rates this year, which pushes up borrowing costs for any S-REIT with overseas properties and foreign currency debt. Local funding is getting cheaper. Overseas funding isn't.
That split matters more than most investors realize. Not every REIT is the same trade right now, and lumping them together as one sector is exactly how investors end up owning the wrong REIT for the wrong reason.
With 20 years of investment expertise, Caleb Gan is a seasoned professional in stock trading. The hard work and dedication were recognized when his partner and him were featured on Singapore TV Channel 9's MoneyWeek, a prominent financial program. He's also had the privilege to share insights on radio stations like 93.8Live, Capital 95.8FM, and 96.3FM through live interviews about stock market investments. Beyond that, he's also the co-founder of NDU System, where he continues to help others navigate the world of trading.
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