Picture working at SpaceX for years. Part of your pay came in shares, the paper number kept growing, and you were not allowed to sell a single one. Today that wait ends for many employees and early investors. Up to 328.4 million SpaceX shares become eligible for sale on 24th September, in a company Wall Street values at roughly $2 trillion.

That is the moment paper wealth can become a house deposit, a tuition bill or a fresh start. It is also when every other shareholder starts asking who blinks first.

When a company goes public, insiders usually cannot sell right away. This rule is called a lockup, and it stops the stock from being flooded with sellers on day one. SpaceX listed on 12th June at $135 a share, but only around 5% of the company was free to trade. The rest was waiting behind the door.

A small supply of shares makes a price jumpy, like a small pond where one big splash moves everything. As lockups expire in stages, the pond gets bigger and the stock behaves differently. More shares for sale does not automatically mean a lower price, but it does mean more sellers in the room.

Remember this for your own investing: a stock's price depends on how many shares are available, not only on how good the story sounds.

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SpaceX closed its first day at $161.11 and hit a record $225.64 on 16th June. Then reality arrived. On 4th August it reported revenue of $7.81 billion, but spending hit $18.37 billion in a single quarter, mostly on AI. The stock fell almost 14% the next day to $108.27, an all-time low.

Here is the twist. On 6th August, when more than 900 million shares unlocked, the stock actually rose about 6%. The bad news was already priced in. When another unlock hit earlier this month, the stock slid 3.9%. Same event, opposite reactions.

Unlock days are closer to a coin flip than a pattern, and anyone promising certainty is guessing.

Nobody knows, which is exactly why the market is nervous. An unlock only gives people the option. Some will sell to lock in life-changing gains, and others will hold because they believe the story is far from over. IPO researcher Jay Ritter told CNN that lockup expiries usually push prices down, but not always.

Elon Musk and select holders are locked up until June 2027, so the biggest owner is not selling today. More supply is coming though. The full 180-day lockup ends on 8th December, when up to 5.33 billion shares could be eligible to trade.

Today is one checkpoint on a long calendar, not the finish line.

With 20 years of investment expertise, Caleb Gan is a seasoned professional in stock trading. The hard work and dedication were recognized when his partner and him were featured on Singapore TV Channel 9's MoneyWeek, a prominent financial program. He's also had the privilege to share insights on radio stations like 93.8Live, Capital 95.8FM, and 96.3FM through live interviews about stock market investments. Beyond that, he's also the co-founder of NDU System, where he continues to help others navigate the world of trading.

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Until next time,

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