Picture working all year, hitting every target, and your boss responds with a polite nod. That is what happened to Micron on 30 September. Revenue hit $54.2 billion, up 379% from a year ago, gross margin reached 87%, and earnings per share came in at $33.42 against the $31.16 Wall Street expected. The stock closed at $1,066 and slipped slightly after hours.

If that confuses you, you are in good company. The last time Micron beat expectations, on 24 June, the stock hit an all-time high of $1,255 the next day and then fell 41% in 35 days, bottoming at $737 on 29 July. Great numbers, painful chart.

Here is the part beginners miss. Micron was already up around 276% this year before the report, so a lot of the good news was sitting in the price before anyone read the results. A great company and a great entry price are two different things, and the second one is where most people get hurt.

Most people watch the stock market. Fewer watch the number that sits underneath it. The US 10-year Treasury yield is now around 5.25%, and it has climbed sharply over the past month. The 2-year sits just under 4.90%. September closed with both the Dow and the S&P 500 posting monthly losses.

Think of the yield as what you can earn on very safe money. When safe money pays over 5%, every risky investment has to work harder to deserve your cash. That is why even strong earnings, with S&P 500 profits on pace to grow more than 30% this year, are not lifting everything.

For Singapore investors, the group to watch is S-REIT holders. REITs lean on borrowing and are often compared against safe yields, so rising bond yields tend to weigh on them. The next checkpoints are the US jobs report on 2 October, forecast around 84,000 new jobs, and mid-October inflation data. Hike odds for the Fed's October meeting have already dropped to about 37%, and a hot number could flip that again.

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TOn 24 September, Brent crude spiked about 5% in a single session to $108.23 after Iran-allied Houthi militants fired missiles at Saudi Arabia. Within a week it was back near $97. Two numbers about the same oil, six days apart.

That swing comes from the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. On 30 September, Trump denied reports that he was willing to ease sanctions on Iran, and oil rose again to finish September with a monthly gain and a 42% jump this quarter. Diesel is averaging around $6.45 a gallon in the US, which feeds straight into shipping costs and eventually your grocery bill.

You do not need to trade oil to feel it. Fuel costs sit behind airfares, food and manufacturing, and they decide whether inflation cools or sticks around. Until the talks either break down or produce a real deal, expect oil to keep reacting to every headline.

While most Singapore investors were comparing DBS and OCBC dividends, AEM Holdings (SGX: AWX) quietly delivered a 411% total return in the first eight months of 2026. The STI ETF returned about 24% over the same stretch, which is a solid year by any normal standard. Next to AEM it looks tiny.

Two other mid-caps also crushed the index, UMS Integration at about 134% and First Resources at about 130%. It is tempting to look at numbers like that and assume you missed the boat, or worse, rush in because you fear missing it.

Look at the details first. In AEM's case, earnings grew but free cash flow weakened, and that gap is worth understanding before you chase anything. Profit on paper and cash in the bank are not the same thing, and the stocks that rise fastest are often the ones that fall hardest when the story changes.

With 20 years of investment expertise, Caleb Gan is a seasoned professional in stock trading. The hard work and dedication were recognized when his partner and him were featured on Singapore TV Channel 9's MoneyWeek, a prominent financial program. He's also had the privilege to share insights on radio stations like 93.8Live, Capital 95.8FM, and 96.3FM through live interviews about stock market investments. Beyond that, he's also the co-founder of NDU System, where he continues to help others navigate the world of trading.

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Until next time,

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