Two months ago, SpaceX was the biggest initial public offering in history. Today it is one of the fastest wealth destructions Wall Street has seen from a fresh listing. The stock priced at $135 a share on June 11, opened trading the next day, and rocketed to an intraday high of $225.64 on June 16. Since that peak it has fallen almost in half, closing recently around $131, a level that sits below the original IPO price itself.

That means anyone who bought on the very first day of trading is currently sitting on a loss. For a company that carried a private valuation north of $800 billion heading into its debut, and that captured the imagination of retail investors everywhere, the swing has been brutal. Elon Musk still owns the majority of the company, so the paper losses have hit him harder than almost anyone, even as the business itself keeps launching rockets on schedule.

Today marks something SpaceX has never done before. The company reports its first quarterly earnings as a public business, and the numbers on the table are enormous. Analysts are penciling in roughly $6.9 billion in second quarter revenue, up 68% from a year earlier. Wall Street is even more bullish about what comes after this quarter, with full year revenue growth expected to run near 100% for both 2026 and 2027, eventually pushing annual revenue toward $80 billion.

The Starlink satellite internet business is the clear standout inside those numbers, having generated $11.4 billion in revenue last year with operating income more than doubling. The newer artificial intelligence infrastructure push tells a different story, having lost billions from operations over the same stretch. Today's report will be the first real chance for the market to see whether the rocket and satellite businesses can carry the weight of a much more expensive, much less proven AI ambition.

Here is the part that has traders genuinely nervous. Two days after today's earnings report, on August 6, the very first wave of insider shares becomes eligible for sale. Up to 911.5 million shares worth more than $115 billion could hit the market almost overnight. That single release is larger than the entire IPO itself.

There is a second trigger sitting just out of reach. If the stock manages to close above $175.50 on five of the ten trading days leading into earnings, another 455.8 million shares get freed up early too. At current prices that threshold is nowhere close, but it shows how much the next few sessions matter. After this initial wave, smaller batches representing about 7% of shares each continue unlocking roughly every two to three weeks all the way through late October, meaning this is not a one time event but the start of a long stretch of potential selling pressure.

What makes this story genuinely interesting is how split Wall Street remains. Of the analysts covering the stock, the overwhelming majority still rate it a buy, and Deutsche Bank has kept its price target at $255, which implies well over 100% upside from current levels. Their argument rests on Starship's progress and the possibility of large government and sovereign AI deals landing in SpaceX's favor.

On the other side sit independent analysts who argue the private market valuation was engineered through a series of tender offers that pushed the price far beyond what the underlying business can support, and that a further slide back toward where the company was privately valued is entirely possible. Even prominent investors are split down the middle here, with some buying aggressively into the dip while others are waiting for the lockup dust to settle before touching the stock at all. Few IPOs in recent memory have divided professional opinion this sharply this early.

With 20 years of investment expertise, Caleb Gan is a seasoned professional in stock trading. The hard work and dedication were recognized when his partner and him were featured on Singapore TV Channel 9's MoneyWeek, a prominent financial program. He's also had the privilege to share insights on radio stations like 93.8Live, Capital 95.8FM, and 96.3FM through live interviews about stock market investments. Beyond that, he's also the co-founder of NDU System, where he continues to help others navigate the world of trading.

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