THE MONDAY EVERYTHING FLIPPED

Three weeks ago, chip stocks were selling off on fears that AI spending had peaked. On 21 September, that story reversed hard. AMD shares jumped as much as 10% to an intraday high of $613.92, pushing its market cap just over $1 trillion for the first time. It became only the fourth US chipmaker to cross that line, after Nvidia, Broadcom and Micron.

The move capped a five-day winning streak in which AMD gained roughly 25%, and the stock is now up more than 180% for the year. The Nasdaq rode the same wave to a record close of 27,122.09, its first fresh record since June.

THE APP THAT MOVED A TRILLION DOLLARS

The spark was smaller than the number it produced. Meta's new AI assistant, called Muse, climbed to the top of the free-download charts on Apple's US App Store over the weekend. Traders read that as proof that everyday people are actually using AI tools now, not just testing them, and that means more demand for the chips running them behind the scenes.

Meta's own stock jumped 11% on the news, and since Meta buys AMD chips for its data centers, the enthusiasm flowed straight through. Intel rose even more than AMD in percentage terms, up over 12%, and Arm Holdings gained more than 15%.

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THE PRICE HIKE THAT NOBODY MINDED

There was a second, quieter driver. Taiwan's TrendForce reported on 18 September that AMD had warned customers of price increases near 10% on its AI accelerators and graphics chips starting in the fourth quarter, passing along higher manufacturing costs from TSMC. Normally a company raising prices spooks a stock. Here it did the opposite, because it signals AMD has enough pricing power that customers will pay it anyway.

That is often a healthier sign than a big single-day rally on its own. It suggests demand is strong enough to absorb higher costs, not just riding a wave of speculative buying.

THE GIANT THAT BARELY MOVED

Nvidia is still nearly five and a half times AMD's size, at roughly $5.4 trillion, and its stock only rose 2.3% that same day. In dollar terms that single-day gain added about $128 billion, more than a third of Arm's entire market value, but measured in percentage terms it looked almost sleepy next to AMD's surge.

This is a useful reminder for beginners comparing stocks by headline moves. A smaller company can post a flashier percentage gain simply because it takes far less new money to move its price. Size cuts both ways: Nvidia's scale means slower percentage swings, but it also means the market already has enormous confidence baked into the price.

WHAT THIS RALLY IS ACTUALLY PRICING IN

Not everyone is convinced this holds. AMD now trades at more than 150 times trailing earnings, well above its own five-year average, and one research firm flagged the stock as over 115% above what it considers fair value. The last time AMD disappointed investors, after its August earnings report gave a forecast that fell short of lofty expectations, the stock dropped and took weeks to recover.

The bet embedded in Monday's rally is that AI spending is still in its early innings rather than close to a ceiling. AMD's CEO said last month the company expects to double data center sales in 2027, and Nvidia's CEO has made similar comments about chip demand next year. If that materializes, today's valuation looks reasonable in hindsight. If it doesn't, a stock that just gained 25% in five days has a lot further to fall than one that climbed slowly.

With 20 years of investment expertise, Caleb Gan is a seasoned professional in stock trading. The hard work and dedication were recognized when his partner and him were featured on Singapore TV Channel 9's MoneyWeek, a prominent financial program. He's also had the privilege to share insights on radio stations like 93.8Live, Capital 95.8FM, and 96.3FM through live interviews about stock market investments. Beyond that, he's also the co-founder of NDU System, where he continues to help others navigate the world of trading.

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